Wednesday, March 14, 2012

Current Positions and Thoughts


So, I've made some changes since last August and continued to buy since then. I got out of NFLX at $250 before its huge drop, but sold CTXS into the drop in the Fall. CTXS has come back pretty nicely now. I also completely exited GOOG today, and have sold some of my AAPL position after this run-up. I've also added a size able position in BAC calls and common. This is something I've been tweeting since October.

I really like GOOG as a business and feel their stock is undervalued, but the volatility surrounding the stock is a little extreme. As a long-term investor, I'm looking to add more stability going forward. I even exited my AMZN position as well for similar reasons. I'm targeting new positions in DEO, IBM, and maybe MCD going forward. I'm also looking to add more PG and BRK-B. Other than that, not too much has changed.

BAC is a wildcard, and could reverse here after its substantial run from $5, but I think it still has room to run over the next 2 years. WFC has also seen a big move from $23 to $33, but I still feel comfortable with the position.

AAPL 8.5%
WFC  16%
C    8%
BAC  8.5% (a majority of jan 2014 and jan 2013 calls and some common)
MSFT 3.5%
JNJ  7.5%
KO   13%
KFT  7.5%
PG   5%
NKE  6%
BRK-B 6%
SNCR  4%
GE    6.5% 

Monday, February 13, 2012

Could This Be Where Apple Tops?


Could this be where Apple tops? (click picture for larger version)




I've been a holder of Apple stock for over 3 years, and I would love to see this move continue, but this two year chart shows a very interesting channel. Is Apple going to top around $510 at the top of this channel?

With Apple at its highest RSI overbought level in 2 years, I have to think we see a pullback in the stock. I started buying short-term puts and will buy more up to $510. 

This is more of a trade as I'm still holding stock (10% of portfolio) and I still believe in Apple's long-term fundamentals(the stock is still cheap).